Global warming may cause losses of up to U.S. $ 7 billion per year in agriculture

Finding is the study of climate change that will be presented during the congress in Sao Paulo this week
by Globo Rural Online

(Report confirms the main research institutes of international warming caused by the emission of greenhouse gases by activities such as power generation , transport and deforestation - Photo : Shutterstock )

By 2020 , climate change could cause losses of up to U.S. $ 7 billion per year in agriculture . Coffee , soybeans and rice are some of the cultures that they may lose productivity , according to a report with projections of how Brazil will suffer the impacts of rising average temperatures caused by global warming in the coming decades . The study , conducted by the Brazilian Panel on Climate Change ( PBMC ) , will be presented and discussed from this Monday ( 9/9 ) , at the First National Conference on Global Climate Change, in São Paulo ( SP ) .

The report was carried out in the last six years with the participation of 345 researchers . They did an assessment of what has been published about climate change in Brazil . The results show that the country will be warmer and will have a change in rainfall . According to the Executive Secretary of PBMC , Andrea Santos , " the Assessment Report shows the state of the art of climate science in Brazil and in South America ."

The publication confirms the main research institutes of international warming caused by the emission of greenhouse gases by activities such as power generation , transport and deforestation. In Brazil , trends indicate that the climate will change in different regions of the country .

In South and Southeast regions, which often suffer from floods and landslides , rains will become stronger and more frequent . In the Northeast , the trend is the opposite : there will be a reduction in the amount rainfall and droughts will become more frequent .

Caatinga and Cerrado

According to the report , as biomes Cerrado and Caatinga be affected. " The Caatinga is a decreasing trend of very intense rainfall and increased temperature may reach 5.5 º C by the end of the century. This is really impressive ," says one of the report's authors , Professor USP Tertius Ambrizzi . He said the drought cycles as facing the Northeast this year will be more common . " Nothing prevents the Northeast have a year with excess water, but the trend over the years is decreased precipitation ."

Amazon and deforestation

According to the study , the area most threatened by changes in the Amazon is the eastern part of the forest , more vulnerable and susceptible to climate due to the expansion of the agricultural frontier . Risk of changing forest type in the region . The vegetation may be poorer , with loss of biomass , fauna and flora .

The report , however , does not consider global warming as the main cause of threat to Amazon . The continued deforestation brings more immediate risks to the forest than the change in temperature . Projections indicate that if Amazon lost more than 40 % forest cover , there will be a drastic change in temperature may result in a regional warming of up to 4 º C. Currently , the forest has lost about 17 % of its coverage .

The National Assessment Report also points to uncertainties in climate research in Brazil . According to the study , there is uncertainty about the amount of greenhouse gases that will be issued in the future on the natural changes in the climate and the limitations of computer models that simulate the temperature . According Ambrizzi these uncertainties show that the country still has a lot to advance in climate research . " We have a few researchers working . In many areas of Brazil, data . We hope that the decision makers can encourage research to reduce these uncertainties ."

First National Conference on Global Climate Change
Year 9 to September 13, 2013
Venue: Convention Centre APAS - Alto da Lapa - São Paulo - SP
Site: http://www.fapesp.br/conclima/

Source : Globo Rural magazine